Polymarket Strategy Lab

public paper trading, arbitrage research, and live-readiness monitor
auto-refresh: 10s

Runner Status

Remote health page: check this first. Stale/stopped rows mean the VPS runner or publisher needs attention.

Scan Schedule

Default VPS scan cadence. Execution runners are intentionally faster; research runners are intentionally slower to limit API and CPU load.

Current Data Window

Current VPS-era data is the operating sample. Historical local data is kept only for research context.

OPEN Positions

Execution Readiness

Arb Execution Summary

Only the currently useful arbitrage execution path is shown here: discovery, strict paper candidate, and live-like execution lab.

Universe Coverage

Shows what each arb runner is actually scanning. This separates BTC/ETH/SOL short crypto markets from generic BINARY_TOP markets.
Execution Failure Reasons
Recent Arb Attempts

Automation Flow

Quasi-realtime view from public summary.json. This shows what the automated research loop is doing and where live promotion is blocked.

Research Queue

Decision Gates

Strategy Decision Board

Historical decisions and rejected ideas live here. The Status tab is the current operating view.

Archived Direction Runners

Direction-family runners are retained as research history, not current live candidates.

Research Snapshot

Detailed Historical Research

Strategy Validation Matrix

Walk-forward validation over historical opportunities. This is research context, not a live instruction.

Deterioration-Aware Candidates

Offline filters generated from recent fold losses.

Fold Breakdown

Loss concentration by side, price band, BTC regime, volatility bucket, and expiry bucket.

Auto Analysis Notes

Generated status notes. The Decision Board above is the primary follow-up tracker.
Diagnostics

Runner Status

Runner Logs

API / Execution Errors

Direction No-Trade Diagnosis

Recent windows ending at the latest scan. This explains why scans did not become placed trades.

Recent 20 Trades

OPEN Positions

Direction PnL Curve

PnL

Offline Optimizer

Grid search over historical opportunities with a time split. Validation metrics are the part after the split, so this is a guard against pure in-sample curve fitting.
Detailed Direction Analysis

Strategy Stats

Strategy Replay

Trade Quality

Market Environment

Event Segments

signals=1 placed=0 Reasons

High-Prob No-Trade Diagnosis

Recent 20 Trades

OPEN Positions

High-Prob Probability Curve

Max Prob

Scan Funnel

Probability Buckets

Recent Candidate Opportunities

High-Prob Notes

Independent direction dry-run using MIN_PROB=0.90 and data_highprob. It only trades when the momentum-derived model probability reaches 90% or higher.

No-Chop No-Trade Diagnosis

Recent 20 Trades

OPEN Positions

No-Chop Probability Curve

Max Prob

Scan Funnel

Probability Buckets

Recent Candidate Opportunities

No-Chop Notes

Independent dry-run using MIN_PROB=0.90, EXCLUDE_BTC_CHOP=true, BTC_CHOP_THRESHOLD=0.0005, and data_nochop_highprob. It scans every 15 seconds by default.

Mid-Vol No-Trade Diagnosis

Recent 20 Trades

OPEN Positions

Mid-Vol Probability Curve

Max Prob

Scan Funnel

Probability Buckets

Recent Candidate Opportunities

Mid-Vol Notes

Independent direction dry-run using MIN_PROB=0.90, VOL_BUCKET_FILTER=mid, and data_midvol_highprob. It only opens new positions during mid realized-volatility windows.

Near-Expiry No-Trade Diagnosis

Recent 20 Trades

OPEN Positions

Near-Expiry Probability Curve

Max Prob

Scan Funnel

Probability Buckets

Recent Candidate Opportunities

Near-Expiry Notes

Independent dry-run using a near-expiry distance model. It only considers markets close to settlement and estimates win probability from BTC distance to the market start price, remaining time, and recent volatility.

Arb Scanner Read

Arb Scanner Universes

Grouped scanner output for BTC/ETH/SOL 5m and 15m Up/Down markets plus BINARY_TOP high-volume two-outcome markets. Legacy rows without universe are counted as BTC_5M.

Arb Scanner YES+NO Curve

YES+NO

Scanner Metrics

OPEN Scanner Paper Positions

Recent Scanner Paper Trades

Recent Scanner Attempts

Legacy Scanner / Micro Diagnostics

Micro-Live Dry-Run

Arbitrage Replay

Recent Arbitrage Opportunities

Recent Micro Attempts

Arb Paper Exec Read

Arb Paper Exec YES+NO Curve

YES+NO

Paper Execution Metrics

OPEN Paper Exec Positions

Recent Paper Exec Trades

Recent Paper Exec Attempts

Live Readiness

Execution Risk Read

Lab YES+NO Curve

YES+NO

Live-Like Risk Metrics

OPEN Lab Paper Positions

Recent Lab Paper Trades

Recent Lab Attempts

Direction Runner Log

Arb Scanner Log

Arb Paper Exec Log

Arb Execution Lab Log

Legacy Arbitrage Scanner Log

Diagnostics: API / Execution Errors